A leaked dataset from Russia’s statistics agency Rosstat reportedly shows more than 450,000 Russians killed in the war in Ukraine since 2022, according to The Moscow Times. The outlet reported that the leak is attributed to hacking groups. The leak has not been independently confirmed.
According to The Moscow Times, the leaked data would make the war the fourth most common cause of death in Russia since 2022. Russia has not officially disclosed its battlefield losses since September 2022, and it has dismissed independent estimates as unreliable.
The Moscow Times reported that Rosstat was hit by a cyberattack on Oct. 29 and Nov. 1. It attributed the attacks to the Belarus Cyber Partisans and Silent Crow hacking groups, both of which are banned in Russia as "extremist organizations."
The outlet said it cross-referenced a random sample of 50 names from Mediazona and BBC Russian’s "Counting the Dead" repository with the leaked dataset. It could not verify the data in its entirety.
The figures differ depending on the source. The Silent Crow figure from the leaked dataset is over 450,000. The Belarus Cyber Partisans released a lower figure of 393,881, using a different methodology that counted only military personnel or civilians killed in combat or from long-term effects of the fighting, according to The Moscow Times.
The Moscow Times also reported that 72% of registered deaths occurred in the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic. It did not state the method behind a separate figure of 6.2 deaths per kilometer.
The British Defense Ministry said in early September that more than half a million people had died fighting for Russia, with casualties possibly as high as 1.5 million including the wounded, according to The Moscow Times. That figure is reported secondhand in the article.
According to the outlet, the leaked figure includes civilians killed in airstrikes and deaths from Ukraine’s 2024 incursion into Russia’s Kursk region. It excludes missing soldiers and about 27,000 foreign fighters believed to have been recruited into the Russian armed forces.
The Moscow Times said the leak supports research showing that Russia’s ethnic republics have suffered disproportionately from mobilization and recruitment. Major cities such as Moscow registered a smaller share of casualties than their populations would suggest.
Kluge, of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, said the main significance of the data is political. He argued that Russia cannot be said to be winning while losing population at this rate.
The Moscow Times reported no response from Rosstat or the Russian government. It did not confirm whether Rosstat acknowledges the leaked figures. The article does not describe next steps, but it notes that the total death toll is likely higher, because missing soldiers and foreign fighters are not included in the leaked data.
This report relies on the Moscow Times article. No independent second source for the leak was available.
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This article was written with AI assistance from the published reporting listed above. It is part of the World Brief daily news podcast.